Well, we know that the base stats are pretty much fixed. They can't add more than 5 types of improvement to a piece of armor (eg: defense, stats {str/dex/agi/etc}, accuracy/attack, evasion, 'enhances' stuff, etc), and Usukane is already pretty much at that limit.
They can, however, add augments, as we commonly see in magian upgrades, and these augments probably give us the option for another full 5 improvements.
I would speculate that there would be 5 magian paths for Usukane: one each for the specific jobs (mnk/nin/sam/pup), and one general path.
Assuming that, what could the mnk path improve on? Well, the main strengths of the Usukane set has been accuracy, evasion and haste. The Tantra set has similar total accuracy (42.5 for full Usu, 43 for full Tantra +2) and better haste (16% on three pieces vs 13% on Usukane with set bonus). And despite defense not meaning a whole lot, it's still useful at times, and Tantra wins by a pretty fair margin there (201 def/12 vit vs 132 def).
The Tantra set has significantly better str and ws mod stats (27 str/12 vit vs 16 str). It has better Subtle Blow (10 vs 5). And offensively it gives boosts to Kick Attacks, kick damage, and augmented Impetus.
A full Tantra +2 set using Smite gives 322.350 DPS without Impetus, and 398.654 DPS with Impetus.
A full Usu set (even leaving the Tantra pieces in for weaponskill) gives 298.267 without Impetus, and 349.939 DPS with Impetus.
Offensively, then, Tantra+2 is 8% ahead without Impetus and 14% ahead with Impetus. Ah, but those numbers are inside Abyssea. Let's try again without atmas and such.
Abyssea (Bison Steak, +70 cruor, RR+GH+Apoc)
No Impetus Impetus
Usukane 298.267 349.939
Tantra 322.350 398.654
Gain: 8.0% 13.9%
Outside Abyssea (Bison Steak)
No Impetus Impetus
Usukane 101.697 112.535
Tantra 119.189 145.044
Gain: 17.2% 28.9%
Outside Abyssea (Pizza +1)
No Impetus Impetus
Usukane 101.119 125.802
Tantra 115.024 148.023
Gain: 13.8% 17.7% So that gives a range of the type of offensive gain that would be needed for Usukane to be on par with the Tantra set. You're looking at +15%-20% to really be competitive, and that's -really- difficult to manage with minor augments. Remember from the Tantra Necklace thread, the 7 skill on the Faith Torque (with base damage increase) only amounts to maybe 1.7% damage, and we'd need about 10x that amount of improvement.
However, going back to my thoughts before I got distracted, Usukane's other main strength is defensive. Where the Tantra set has basically no defensive stats other than raw Defense, Usukane has quite a bit of evasion along with a bit of counter.
Having spent a fair bit of time recently playing on thf, there's definitely something to be said for the comfort of knowing you just can't be touched. Unfortunately there's no way in hell they could add enough evasion to the set to put us anywhere near that level. Counter, on the other hand..
When we leave Abyssea, we also lose the counter bonus of the GH atma. Counter being another of the stats that has increasing returns, losing ~10% counter rate will be a rather significant loss in our defensive arsenal. Of course SE has also been notoriously stingy in providing gear with that stat.
Still, they could -maybe- provide us the option of building it into a significantly defensive set, with more evasion and counter and such. Add an extra 15 counter across all the pieces along with some minor offensive boosts and I think it would be worth going for.
Given that SE's thinking rarely matches mine more than tangentially, I'm not expecting much in this regard. Still, it's interesting to consider, and we can at least hope for something useful.
As an aside, regarding the body comparison: Tantra+2 is about 2.2% better than Usukane without Impetus and about 5.8% better with Impetus, without Abyssea buffs and eating Pizza. Stats you could add to the Usukane body to match the Tantra +2 body, assuming full Usu set:
Impetus down:
18 att
2% TA rate
3% DA rate
8% KA rate
5% crit rate
20% crit damage
Impetus up (note that this includes leaving Tantra+2 body on for weaponskill; using Usu body for weaponskill increases required values):
55 att
4% TA rate
8% DA rate
20% KA rate
15% crit rate
Overall average:
25 h2h skill
40 att
3% TA
6% DA
16% KA
10% crit rate
Edited, Feb 4th 2011 5:05pm by Kinematics